Bitcoin ($BTC) Price Prediction: When is The Next Crypto Bull Run?

Market cycles consist of periods of price increases (bull markets) and decreases (bear markets), often influenced by investor sentiment, economic conditions, and technological advancements. Especially, for the cryptocurrency market that is particularly known for its volatility and rapid shifts, we are moving from one cycle to another.

In the crypto market, cycles typically follow a pattern that includes four phases: accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend.

During the accumulation phase, savvy investors buy crypto assets at lower prices, anticipating future growth. Where prices rise significantly due to increasing interest is the uptrend phase. The distribution phase occurs when early investors start taking profits as prices peak, leading to a downtrend characterized by selling pressure.

This current cycle is quite different, we're constantly being wiggled around in panic and fear.

Let's answer the most important question by going into the intricacies of the current cycle we are in. Are we in a bull or bear cycle?

Current Market Overview

As of October 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated notable resilience amidst recent price fluctuations. On October 4, Bitcoin bounced off the critical $60,000 level, signaling that bulls are attempting to establish a higher floor. This bounce coincides with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is currently positioned at approximately $60,461. Most analysts predict this technical indicator to be a key support level, which has historically attracted buying interest when prices approach it.

Source: The_ForexX_Mindset on trading view

Quinn Thompson, the chief investment officer at Lekker Capital, said in a post on X that buying Bitcoin near $61,000 is a "no-brainer."

I don't usually give very short-term views, but seems like a no-brainer to be bidding this area with clear invalidation on the back of a 180 degree shift in the macro backdrop from the relative to the 3 previous similar setups. https://t.co/NzqUSEvKbg pic.twitter.com/1PlviEyf5o

— Quinn Thompson (@qthomp) October 3, 2024

This statement reflects a bullish sentiment among certain investors who view this price point as an attractive entry level. The belief is that Bitcoin's current price represents a solid opportunity for accumulation before potential upward movement.

Source: @qthomp on X

The bullish outlook is further supported by external factors influencing market sentiment. For instance, JPMorgan recently issued a report indicating that rising geopolitical tensions and the impending U.S. election are likely to reinforce what they call the "debasement trade," favoring both gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets.

Source: @cryptoquant_com on X

This analyzed insight comes from the studied pattern of historical trends where cryptocurrencies gain traction during periods of economic uncertainty and political instability.

Is the decrease in the 13-week Treasury yield driving up prices?

In 2008, as the 13-week Treasury Bill Yields started to lower, gold prices soared from $590 to a peak of $1900 per ounce in 2011.

In 2024 a similar trend is occurring, with gold rising from $2000 to nearly $2700.… pic.twitter.com/zTPbeWUqeP

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 1, 2024

However, despite this bullish sentiment, the recent fall to $60,000 has also dented overall market sentiment. On-chain analytics provider Santiment noted a decline in mentions of "Uptober"-a term associated with bullish sentiment in October-since the beginning of the month. This decline suggests that traders may be growing increasingly bearish in their outlook. Some analysts predict that if Bitcoin fails to hold above this critical support level of $60,000, it could drop to $52,000.

Source: @balance_ra on X

The psychological aspect of trading cannot be understated; as sentiment shifts from bullish to bearish, it can lead to increased selling pressure. This phenomenon often creates a self-fulfilling prophecy where traders react to negative sentiment by selling off their positions, which eventually drives prices down.

Support and Resistance Levels: Are We on The Good Side of The Market?

In terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin's price action indicates that bulls are attempting to defend the 50-day SMA at $60,461. If buyers can push and maintain the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at approximately $62,195, it would improve prospects for a rally toward $66,500. If this level is successfully breached, the next target could be around $70,000.

Source: Xanrox on TradingView

Conversely, some analysts also predicted that if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA, it would suggest that bears have gained the upper hand. In such a scenario, analysts warn that the BTC/USD pair could skid to $57,500 and subsequently find solid support at $54,000. These levels are crucial for traders to monitor closely as they will determine whether Bitcoin can maintain its bullish trajectory or if it will succumb to bearish pressures.

Still on this, the broader cryptocurrency market is also experiencing fluctuations that impact Bitcoin's performance. As of now, Bitcoin remains the most dominant cryptocurrency by market capitalization; however, altcoins are also witnessing varying degrees of activity and investor interest.

Ethereum (ETH), for instance, has been trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern that indicates uncertainty regarding its next directional move. The current price action suggests a minor advantage for bears as the 20-day EMA at approximately $2,504 has started to turn down. Any recovery attempt may face resistance at this level; if Ethereum can push above its moving averages decisively, it could target resistance around $3,409.

Source: FrankFx14 on TradingView

Other cryptocurrencies such as Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL), and Binance Coin (BNB) are also experiencing unique challenges and opportunities that are worth looking more deeply into because the performance of these major assets mostly determines the fates of others. Therefore, let's go deeper into the specifics of their technical indicators.

Technical Indicators for Major Crypto Assets

To assess the current bull cycle comprehensively, we will analyze several technical indicators for major cryptocurrencies, focusing on Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), Toncoin (TON), Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), and Shiba Inu (SHIB). Each asset's price action, moving averages, and momentum indicators will provide insights into their potential future movements and maybe generally give a leap into what we should be expecting in the future.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Bitcoin has shown resilience as it recently bounced off the critical $60,000 level on October 4. This bounce, as mentioned earlier, coincides with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at approximately $60,461. The bulls are attempting to defend this SMA, which has historically acted as a support level.

For Bitcoin to maintain its bullish momentum, buyers must push and sustain the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at around $62,195 as mentioned earlier. A successful breach of this level could set the stage for a rally toward $66,500. If this resistance is overcome, the next psychological target would likely be around $70,000, with some analysts even predicting 70K to be objectively within range.

Source: MarcPMarkets on TradingView

Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to hold above the 50-day SMA and drops below this support level, analysts predict it could skid to $57,500, with further declines potentially reaching solid support at $54,000.

Ethereum Price Analysis

Ethereum has been trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, which most analysts have claimed to be an indicator of uncertainty regarding its next directional move. The current price action suggests a minor advantage for bears as the 20-day EMA at approximately $2,504 has started to turn down. Any recovery attempt may face selling pressure at this level; if Ethereum can push above its moving averages decisively, it could target resistance around $3,409.

Source: ICmarkets on TradingView

The RSI for Ethereum is currently in negative territory but not yet oversold. This suggests that while there may be selling pressure in the short term, there remains potential for upward movement if bullish momentum can be established. A break above the triangle pattern would confirm a bullish continuation and could lead to significant price appreciation.

Binance Coin ($BNB) Price Analysis

Binance Coin has faced challenges recently after sellers pushed it below its 50-day SMA of approximately $551 on October 1. However, the price has failed to sink below $527, indicating that buyers are stepping in at this support level, especially following the recent release of CZ, the founder and formal CEO of Binance. The bulls are now attempting to reclaim the moving averages.

Source: InvestingScope on TradingView

If BNB manages to regain its footing above the moving averages, it may again attempt a rally toward $635. However, sellers are expected to mount a strong defense at this level. If BNB turns down from the moving averages and fails to hold above $527, it could clear the path for a possible decline toward $460-where buyers might be likely to step in again.

Solana ($SOL) Price Analysis

Solana has recently fallen below its 50-day SMA of approximately $141, signaling potential weakness in its price action. The cryptocurrency may remain stuck between significant support at $116 and resistance at $164 for a few more days.

Source: RichRangatang on TradingView

The bulls will need to push the price back above the moving averages to signal a potential reversal. If they succeed in overcoming resistance at $164, it could complete an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern with a target of approximately $208. Conversely, if SOL fails to reclaim these levels and drops below $116, it may indicate further bearish sentiment.

Ripple ($XRP) Price Analysis

XRP has recently plunged below both its moving averages and uptrend line on October 2. Many analysts ascribed the drop to be an indicator that bullish momentum has weakened significantly. The current 20-day EMA is around $0.57, which has started to turn down while the RSI is also in negative territory-suggesting that bears have taken control.

Source: VT-2 on TradingView

Minor support is currently located at $0.50; however, if XRP breaks down below this level, it could drop further to approximately $0.46. On the upside, bulls need to drive XRP back above the moving averages to signal a comeback; if successful, they could then aim for a rally toward resistance at $0.64-an essential hurdle for bullish sentiment.

Toncoin ($TON) Price Analysis

Toncoin's recent performance shows that bulls are struggling to push prices back above their moving averages- which can be mostly attributed to a lack of demand at higher levels following the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov. The bears are likely aiming to pull Toncoin down toward solid support at approximately $4.72.

Source: ew-forecast on TradingView

If buyers can defend this level effectively and prevent a breakdown below it-which would complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern-it could lead to further declines toward $3.50. Conversely, if buyers manage to push TON above $6.14 decisively, they could initiate a rally toward $7.

Shiba Inu ($SHIB) Price Analysis

Shiba Inu is currently witnessing a tough battle between bulls and bears near its 20-day EMA, which is positioned around $0.000016.

If SHIB can sustain its current bounce, it would suggest that bulls are trying to form a higher low. Buyers would then aim for resistance around $0 .000022, where strong selling pressure from bears is anticipated.

Source: MCMC_0 on TradingView

On the contrary, if this rebound fails, it signals weak demand from bulls-raising concerns about potential declines below critical moving averages. In such an event, SHIB may slump toward approximately $ 0.000012.

Market Sentiment Analysis: Fear or Greed?

Market sentiment serves as a crucial determinant of whether we are truly in a bull market. As it encapsulates the understanding of how traders feel about the market can help us make informed decisions about their positions.

To gauge our current sentiment levels we will use these key metrics, including the Fear and Greed Index, social media trends, trading volume, and open interest in Bitcoin options trading.

Fear and Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index is a popular tool that measures investor sentiment on a scale from extreme fear to extreme greed. As of October 6th, 2024, the index currently sits at 50, indicating a neutral sentiment but not yet at extreme levels of greed that could signal an impending correction.

Source: @BitcoinFear on X

Historically, readings above 70 often suggest that the market is overbought and may be due for a pullback, while readings below 30 indicate extreme fear, often presenting buying opportunities.

The current reading of 50 which just relieved from 60 suggests that while there is optimism in the market, caution is warranted. Traders should be aware that sentiment can shift rapidly, especially in the crypto space. For instance, during previous bull runs, the index often peaked above 80 before significant corrections occurred.

Social Media Trends

Recent data from social media platforms indicates that mentions of "Uptober," a term associated with bullish sentiment in October, have declined since early October. This decline suggests that traders may be growing cautious following Bitcoin's recent fall below $60K.

The decline in social media mentions can often precede price corrections; when enthusiasm wanes, it may lead to reduced buying pressure. Some analysts believe Bitcoin could drop to $52K if this support level is violated.

Always monitor social media trends as an investor in the crypto space, the market reacts to trends a lot. But it is worth noting that the current trend suggests a more balanced or misleading crowd thought on what happens next. According to this chart by Santiment, the "change in mood is encouraging, considering markets typically always move in the opposite direction of the crowd's expectation."

Source: @santimentfeed on X

Trading Volume

Bitcoin's trading volume has surged to approximately $27.6 billion over the last 72 hours-a clear reflection of heightened activity and engagement within the market. Increased trading volume often correlates with significant price movements; higher volumes during upward price movements indicate strong buying interest, while increased volumes during declines can signal panic selling.

For example, during Bitcoin's recent rally to its all-time high of $73,738 on March 14, 2024, trading volumes were significantly elevated. Conversely, if Bitcoin's price were to decline with high volume, it could indicate strong selling pressure and a potential shift toward bearish sentiment.

Open Interest in Bitcoin Options Trading

Another critical metric is open interest in Bitcoin options trading. Open interest has risen significantly to nearly $27 billion following recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This increase indicates strong bullish sentiment among traders who are betting on continued upward price movement.

Open interest represents the total number of outstanding options contracts that have not been settled. A rising open interest alongside increasing prices typically indicates that new money is entering the market and supports bullish trends. Conversely, if open interest declines while prices fall, it may suggest that traders are closing out their positions and could be anticipating further declines.

Factors Driving the Current Bull Cycle

Institutional Adoption

Bitcoin's bull market cycle appears to be accelerating as it runs approximately 100 days ahead of its typical four-year cycle according to CoinMarketCap (CMC). Companies like MicroStrategy have made substantial investments in Bitcoin while recent approvals of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also mark significant steps toward mainstream acceptance.

JPMorgan recently stated that rising geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. election are likely to reinforce what they call the "debasement trade," as mentioned earlier, and it will favor both gold and Bitcoin. This is historically a common trend where investors seek refuge in assets perceived as stores of value during times of uncertainty.

Economic Conditions and Interest Rates

The U.S. economy added approximately 254,000 jobs in September-far exceeding expectations-and this solid economic growth could be net-positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. The anticipation surrounding Federal Reserve rate cuts further enhances this environment; futures pricing reflects expectations of minimal rate adjustments at upcoming meetings.

Notably, as central banks ease monetary policies amid economic uncertainties, liquidity expands within financial markets-a trend historically correlated with rising cryptocurrency prices. A renewed boom in Bitcoin's price amid global liquidity expansion could also lift Ethereum and other altcoins alongside it.

Political and Geopolitical Tension

We can't mention all the factors and forget the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Candidates' stances on cryptocurrency regulation will significantly influence investor sentiment and most especially the market dynamics.

Notably, Donald Trump has rebranded himself as a pro-crypto candidate by accepting Bitcoin donations for his campaign. Conversely, Kamala Harris's stance remains less defined but shows signs of partial acceptance toward supporting innovative technologies like digital currencies.

On the other side, the ongoing war between Israel and Iran is also a determinant factor, as the effects of war can go beyond the confinement of the warzone, it always has a global effect, especially through the market.

Recent Discoveries and Cultural Impact

On the last note which we should also not rule out, is the recent media coverage surrounding Satoshi Nakamoto's identity has reignited interest in Bitcoin. HBO's documentary exploring this mystery has captivated audiences and renewed discussions about Bitcoin's origins and future potential, and this without doubt will further fuel speculative interest among investors.

In the future of money, who holds the power?

The @HBO Original Documentary #MoneyElectric: The Bitcoin Mystery premieres October 8 on @StreamOnMax. pic.twitter.com/3gEwTqYaAq

— HBO Documentaries (@HBODocs) October 3, 2024

Which Narratives and Assets Are at the Forefront of the Next Bull Cycle?

It has been a long ride from the beginning, now here is a cheat sheet guide into what is trending, what you should pay more attention to, and why. Pay attention to these narratives so you won't miss out on the next bull cycle.

1. Bitcoin Dominance vs. Altseason

Historically, Bitcoin has tended to lead initial bull phases before altcoins gain traction later on. This phenomenon is often referred to as "Bitcoin dominance," which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization relative to the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. As of October 2024, Bitcoin's dominance remains strong, hovering around 52%. This established position as the leading cryptocurrency suggests that Bitcoin will likely continue to attract significant investment in the near term.

In previous bull markets, once Bitcoin reaches a peak or shows signs of consolidation, altcoins often experience a surge in interest and investment-this phase is known as "altseason". However, current dynamics indicate that while altseason could materialize, it may not happen until Bitcoin stabilizes or retraces from its recent highs. Monitor the interplay between these two major coins well to make the most of the next cycle, and for whales, betting on Bitcoin is a "no-brainer".

2. Promising Altcoins

If an altseason does materialize, investors should closely monitor promising altcoins with robust fundamentals or unique use cases. Projects such as Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL) have garnered significant attention due to their growing ecosystems and increasing adoption rates among developers and users alike.

• Solana (SOL) has gained traction due to its high throughput and low transaction costs, making it a favored platform for decentralized applications (dApps). Its ecosystem includes various DeFi projects and it is the most used blockchain by meme coins, and the culture of memes is reviving itself daily. As of October 2024, Solana's market capitalization is approximately $45 billion, and analysts are optimistic about its growth prospects as it seeks to regain momentum.

• TRON (TRX) focuses on content sharing and entertainment applications, allowing users to publish and own their data. With a market capitalization of around $8 billion as of October 2024, TRON has seen steady growth in user adoption and transaction volume. Its partnerships with entertainment platforms position it well for future expansion in the decentralized internet space.

• SUI (SUI) is an emerging blockchain project that addresses scalability and usability challenges faced by existing platforms. By providing a framework for developers to create decentralized applications seamlessly, SUI aims to enhance user experience significantly. Although still new, its innovative approach could attract considerable investment as it develops and its recent massive attention has been suggesting the same.

Other altcoins like Binance Coin (BNB), XRP, and emerging projects like Toncoin (TON) are also worth monitoring as they offer unique value propositions within their respective niches.

3. Emerging Trends

Emerging trends such as the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency are gaining traction as well. Projects integrating AI technologies are expected to attract significant investment as they promise innovative solutions across various sectors-ranging from finance to supply chain management-thereby expanding their utility beyond mere speculation.

For instance:

• AI-Powered Trading Bots: Several platforms are developing AI algorithms that analyze vast amounts of market data in real-time to make informed trading decisions.

• Tokenization of Real-World Assets: The concept of tokenizing real-world assets-such as real estate or commodities-using blockchain technology is gaining momentum. This trend allows for fractional ownership and increased liquidity in traditionally illiquid markets.

The Ultimate Answer: Are We in a Bull Market Yet? How High Can It Go?

Based on current indicators and analyses, it appears we are indeed in an early bull market phase for cryptocurrencies overall, despite fluctuations experienced recently across various assets, but this is based on the overall look.

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $74k on March 14, 2024; this remarkable achievement has fueled optimism among investors regarding future price appreciation. Projections suggest that Bitcoin could reach between $100,000 and $150,000 by late 2024 or early 2025, largely due to ongoing institutional interest coupled with macroeconomic factors such as inflation concerns driving demand for alternative assets.

Historically, Bitcoin has led initial bull phases before altcoins gain traction. This dominance suggests that while altseason may eventually unfold, Bitcoin will likely maintain its leading role in the near term.

The recent bounce off the $60,000 support level is critical; it indicates that bulls are attempting to establish a higher floor. If Bitcoin can sustain momentum above the 20-day EMA at around $62,195, it could pave the way for further gains toward $66,500 and potentially $70,000. Conversely, failure to hold above this support could trigger bearish sentiment, with analysts predicting potential declines to $57,500 and subsequently to $54,000.

The duration of this cycle aligns with historical patterns observed in previous bull markets; analysts suggest it could last until at least March 2026, based on past trends and investor behavior during similar phases. Many experts predict total crypto market capitalization could soar between $8 trillion and $14 trillion during this period.

While current indicators suggest substantial growth potential remains within this bull cycle, caution is warranted due to the inherent volatility characteristic of cryptocurrency markets. The Fear and Greed Index, which currently sits at a partial 50, indicates bullish sentiment but not yet extreme levels of greed that could signal an impending correction. Additionally, social media mentions of "Uptober" have declined recently, suggesting traders may be growing cautious following Bitcoin's fluctuations.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, the interplay between Bitcoin's performance and altcoin movements will be crucial for capitalizing on opportunities within this current bull cycle.

Investors should remain vigilant in monitoring emerging trends and should always remember to "Do Your Own Research". It is very important to make a better decision, while we provide a guide to decision-making and give you the overall market insight, the decision is still dependent on your gut and convictions.