Is the Crypto Bull Run Over? Updated March 2025

The crypto market is swinging between chaos and opportunity. Bitcoin, which peaked at $108,000 in January 2025, has slid to a low of $82,000, a drop of over 20% from its high. Ethereum, battered by the Bybit hack, trades at $2,235, down from $3,600 earlier this year.

With the total market cap holding near $3 trillion and Bitcoin's dominance above 55%, the question looms: Is the bull run dead, or is this a dip before the next surge?

Investors are wrestling with fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) due to recent events like President Trump's strategic crypto reserve announcement, new tariffs, and escalating geopolitical tensions. This article cuts through the noise, analyzing current sentiment and key drivers to help you decide whether to hold your crypto or sell now.

Recent Price Action: A Market in Turmoil

The past few months have been a rollercoaster. Bitcoin's euphoric climb above $100,000 in January, which was fueled by Trump's victory and high hopes of clearer regulations, crashed by February 27, dipping below $90,000.

The trigger? The Bybit hack on February 21, 2025, where North Korea's Lazarus Group stole $1.5 billion in Ethereum. Bitcoin shed 7.25% in a day, hitting $87,169.76, per Reuters, while Ethereum took a heavier hit, sliding toward $2,235.

Solana, once at $290 in January, now lingers below $160. Despite these losses, the market cap's resilience hints at underlying strength and what some call "stubborn hope."

At this junction, sentiment split: Some see a buying opportunity, while others see a warning of deeper declines.

Current Events Shaping Sentiment

The crypto market doesn't operate in isolation. Here's how today's headlines are driving prices and investor mood as of March 6, 2025:

Strategic Crypto Reserve

On March 2, 2025, President Trump unveiled plans for a U.S. "strategic crypto reserve" featuring Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano. The market erupted, briefly pushing Bitcoin to $90,000, and altcoins also spiked. But by March 4, gains evaporated, with prices retreating amid skepticism.

🇺🇸 Portfolio of the U.S. Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve:

60% allocated to $XRP 15% invested in $BTC 10% in $ETH 10% designated to $SOL 5% directed towards $ADA pic.twitter.com/Zh5DbGushg

— CryptoSensei (@Crypt0Senseii) March 4, 2025

Sentiment is cautiously bullish but jittery. As some believed, without concrete policy, it's a wild card. If clarity on when and how has been announced, this could bolster a hold strategy for you or signal a sell if it fizzles into regulatory overreach.

Trump's Tariffs: A Double-Edged Sword

Trump's tariffs, implemented on February 4, 2025, impose 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China. They aim to boost U.S. industry but, according to analysts, hit households with an estimated $800 extra tax burden.

🇺🇸 BREAKING: Trump says tariffs set for March 4 will go into effect as scheduled, with China facing an additional 10% tariff. pic.twitter.com/WzYmj3dTLy

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) February 27, 2025

Inflation fears are rising, and economic growth could stall. Crypto's response is conflicted. Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative quickly became doubtful, drawing investors fleeing fiat weakness. However, a risk-off mood could crush speculative assets if growth slows.

The market's volatility since February suggests that tariffs are a net negative for now, nudging cautious investors toward selling. If you're risk-averse, this might tip you to lighten your load; if you see Bitcoin as a hedge, holding makes sense.

Geopolitical Conflict and the Bybit Hack

The Bybit hack wasn't just seen as a theft; it's a geopolitical flare-up. North Korea's $1.5 billion Ethereum heist has heightened fears of state-sponsored cyber threats, with Ethereum's price still reeling.

Broader tensions, like the U.S. vs. North Korea standoffs, add pressure, potentially spurring sell-offs to safer assets. Yet, crypto's history of bouncing back (think Mt. Gox) offers hope.

The sentiment here is bearish in the short term but resilient in the long term. If you're rattled by security risks, selling some holdings could ease your nerves; if you trust the rebound, holding or buying could pay off either way.

Regulatory Winds: Pro-Crypto Signals

Trump's "crypto capital" pledge is bearing fruit. The new SEC head dropped cases against Coinbase, Uniswap, and Robinhood, signaling a lighter touch. This has proven to lift sentiment, as many analysts see institutional money waiting on the sidelines, ready to fuel a recovery.

However, the strategic reserve's ambiguity tempers the mood. For now, it's a hold-friendly tailwind, though regulatory surprises could shift the sentiment.

White House Crypto Summit: Underwhelming News

The White House Crypto Summit, which was hosted by President Trump and chaired by David Sacks, the AI & Crypto Czar happened on March 7th. Industry leaders were supposed to discuss with lawmakers on the following direction of the crypto industry.

President Trump will host the first White House Crypto Summit on Friday March 7. Attendees will include prominent founders, CEOs, and investors from the crypto industry. Look forward to seeing everyone there! pic.twitter.com/PEynzDuAOt

— David Sacks (@davidsacks47) March 1, 2025

Discussions included regulatory frameworks, stablecoin rules, and the strategic reserve. However the strategic reserve that the market was expecting did not come. Instead, we got reassured that FED will not sell any of the cryptocurrencies confiscated by the US government - that means no new buying.

This news sent the crypto market even deeper into red numbers.

Technical and Fundamental Analysis: A Mixed Picture

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the charts reflect indecision. Bitcoin, at $82,530, sits below its 50-day moving average of $90,000, indicating short-term weakness.

Yet, it holds above the 200-day moving average of $75,000, preserving the long-term uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 is neutral and shows no overbought or oversold signals.

Key support lies at $80,000; a break below could accelerate selling. To maintain bullish momentum, resistance at $95,000 must be reclaimed.

Ethereum mirrors this. At $2,235, it's below its 50-day moving average of $2,500 but above the 200-day moving average of $2,000.

The RSI, at 38 - 40, is neutral. It also has support at $2,000; if breached, declines could deepen. Resistance at $2,800 is the breakout level to watch.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamentally, the backdrop is complex. Five percent inflation pressures fiat currencies, reinforcing Bitcoin's hedge appeal. The Fed's hinted rate cuts in Q3 2025 could lift risk assets like crypto.

Moreover, institutional adoption grows as BlackRock and Fidelity deepen their ETF and custody stakes. The strategic crypto reserve could also drive demand if it is transparent, but its current ambiguity invites regulatory risks.

The reserve is a high-stakes gamble. It could legitimize crypto, drawing institutional capital and sparking a rally.

Furthermore, geopolitical tensions, like the Bybit hack, could spur flight to safety, and while it might be little, the market has proven to be resistance to them.

If the reserve avoids heavy-handed control and tensions ease, it's a bull market catalyst. For now, its promise is still unclear.

Is the Bull Run Over? Sentiment and Indicators Say…

The 20% drop from Bitcoin's peak stings, but the current market suggests it's not the end. Technically, the RSI hovers above 37, which means it is not oversold and hinting at a correction, not a collapse. Support at $80,000 for Bitcoin and $2,000 for Ethereum could hold if sentiment stabilizes.

Fundamentally, institutional backing and ETF growth argue that the bull run has legs as analysts still see $123,000 for Bitcoin and $4,591 for Ethereum by year-end.

However, there is a risk as leverage is high, and external shocks could deepen the slide.

Amidst all these, sentiment leans toward "dip, not doom"; it reflects a pause, not a bust. For you, this tilts toward holding unless macro fears outweigh your conviction.

When Will Crypto Go Back Up?

Timing is tricky, but catalysts are brewing. A clear strategic reserve plan could spark a rally by summer 2025, especially if institutional cash flows in.

Tariff-driven inflation might also boost Bitcoin's hedge appeal within months, while Ethereum's Dencun upgrade could lift it by Q3.

On the other hand, geopolitical calm or even another hack could sway the timeline.

However, the current sentiment strongly suggests a rebound by mid-2025, barring major disruptions. Holding positions you for this; selling now risks missing it.

Hold or Sell? Your Decision, Grounded in Today's Reality

Here's the bottom line, tailored to March 5, 2025:

• Hold If: You believe in crypto's long game. The strategic reserve's potential, regulatory tailwinds, and historical resilience outweigh short-term FUD. If the $123,000 and $4,591 targets hold, Bitcoin at $85,530 and Ethereum at $2,235 look like discounts.

• Sell If: Geopolitical risks (hacks, tensions) and tariff fallout spook you. The reserve's uncertainty and 20% drop signal volatility are ahead. Cashing out some gains or cutting losses makes sense if you can't stomach more downsides.

• Mixed Approach: Sell a portion to lock in profits or reduce risk, then hold the rest for a rebound. This balances today's uncertainty with tomorrow's upside.

Final Take

The bull run isn't over. It's bruised but breathing. The sentiment is shaky but not broken, and current events like the strategic reserve and tariffs are stoking fear and greed.

A little secret about all the crypto millionaires I know... they all had to hold through dips.

The only exception was ... a guy who was a billionaire.

— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) March 4, 2025

Crypto could climb back by mid-2025, driven by adoption and macro shifts, but risks like hacks and economic slowdowns loom. Your move depends on your gut: Hold for the potential payoff, sell to dodge the storm, or split the difference. In crypto, chaos often precedes the next big win.